UFC fight nights
One night I got five parlays in a row and thought I cracked the code. It wasn’t about skill at that point—I just felt unstoppable. There’s something about getting it right a few times that flips a switch in your head. The thing is, the “hot hand” bias isn’t just about winning—it’s about believing you’ve figured out a pattern, even when the game is pure chaos. I read this breakdown recently that explains the psychology behind it way better than I ever could: https://lawbhoomi.com/hot-hand-why-bettors-chase-winning-streaks/. It hits on that weird confidence spike that makes you think past results are somehow shaping the next one. Once I understood that, it actually helped me cool off before making emotional bets. I started tracking not just wins and losses, but why I placed each bet. If I noticed I was betting “because I’m hot,” I made myself wait 24 hours. It sounds dumb but it worked. Now I treat streaks like weather—fun while they last, but never assume they’ll stick around.
It’s funny how the brain latches onto patterns, even when you know they might be meaningless. That rush you get from thinking you’ve “cracked the code” is almost as powerful as the wins themselves, and sometimes harder to let go of.